Alaska's Energy Choice: A Smarter Path Than a Costly Pipeline

Alaska sits on a massive natural gas reserve, yet Anchorage struggles to keep up with fuel demand. Many leaders push for a new pipeline, but the price tag is staggering—$13. 2 billion just for the first phase, with a potential $44. 5 billion expansion for exports. That’s more than the entire state budget for some years. And here’s the kicker: the last time someone estimated this project in 2016, they guessed the same low-end cost. If prices haven’t changed in eight years, maybe it’s time to question the math. The plan to fund this pipeline? Charge Alaskans $16 per 1, 000 cubic feet of gas until exports start. But with inflation making everything from groceries to mortgages unpredictable, locking in today’s prices seems risky. Proponents say this gas will be cheaper than importing LNG from elsewhere. But right now, global prices are high because of Middle East conflicts choking supply. Once those tensions ease, cheap gas floods the market. Why spend billions now when prices could drop soon?The numbers don’t lie. By 2030, the world could see 40% more LNG supply from new projects in the U. S. and Middle East. Futures markets already show prices falling—from $18. 90 per thousand cubic feet today to under $8 by 2031 in Asia. Europe sees a similar drop. Meanwhile, Alaskans could end up paying more than double those prices for gas from the pipeline. Why bet on a system that’ll be outdated before it’s finished? There’s a simpler solution: skip the pipeline and use floating gas stations. A floating LNG storage unit in Cook Inlet could deliver gas to Anchorage and beyond while Alaska builds wind, solar, and hydropower. These units cost $80–300 million—a fraction of the pipeline’s price—and can start up in just 18 months. Sure, daily costs run $150, 000, but that’s still cheaper than Glenfarne’s proposal when you factor in price drops. The real issue isn’t just cost—it’s timing. Pipeline construction takes years, with thousands of roads, camps, and bridges needed before gas flows. Global prices, though, are already dropping. Why rush into a project that might saddle Alaska with overpriced gas for decades? A floating unit gives breathing room to plan a smarter energy future without betting the farm on one risky bet.