Fiorot Edges Grasso in UFC Flyweight Clash, Model Favors Decision Win

A high-stakes women's flyweight bout between Manon Fiorot and Alexa Grasso is set to headline action at 125 pounds. The Athlon Sports MMA prediction system ran the numbers without leaning on betting lines, and the gap between the two fighters came out to over six points.

Fiorot brings a sharp statistical edge into the matchup. She averages 5.66 significant strikes landed per minute while allowing just 3.58, and her 66% strike defense plus 87% takedown defense show strong defensive habits. Her record sits at 13-2, and she recently bounced back from a title loss by stopping Jasmine Jasudavicius in under 75 seconds.

Grasso, now 17-5-1, has the bigger career highlight: a win over Valentina Shevchenko for the title. But she enters this fight coming off back-to-back losses to Shevchenko and Natalia Silva. Her career rates show 4.11 significant strikes landed and 3.73 absorbed per minute, which trails Fiorot's volume.

The model gives Fiorot the edge in most categories. She leads in style, recent form, resume, damage, weight, cardio, and even takedown defense. Grasso only takes the resume and intangibles categories outright, but those aren't enough to close the gap.

Fiorot's weighted score of 88.0 beats Grasso's 81.9. The deciding factor is her range control, higher-volume kicking game, and elite takedown defense, which limit Grasso's paths to sustained offense. The most likely outcome is a unanimous decision win for Fiorot, though a close decision for Grasso remains possible.