Future Land Use in China: Balancing Development and Nature

Land use changes in the hilly red soil region (HRSR) of Southern China, particularly in Jiangxi Province, are a hot topic. These changes can impact local ecosystem services (ESs) like habitat quality, soil conservation, and water yield. We studied three scenarios for 2035: nature development (ND), economic development (ED), and ecological protection (EP). Using the InVEST model, we found that built-up land will take over cropland and woodland, cutting down on ESs. Under ED, cropland and built-up land will rise, but at the cost of woodland and ESs. EP slows down built-up land growth and boosts woodland, slightly increasing ESs. Some ES pairs, like water yield, show trade-offs, while others have synergies. By 2035, many counties will see changes in trade-off and synergy intensity and direction. This study helps local managers make better land use decisions.