Google's New Tool: Betting on the Future with Kalshi and Polymarket

Google is adding a new feature to its finance tools. It will now include odds from prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket. This move could expose millions of users to these platforms, which are facing legal challenges. Kalshi and Polymarket argue that their platforms are not gambling sites. They say they offer "event contracts" regulated like commodities. However, many lawmakers and state attorneys general disagree. They believe these platforms are just sports betting in disguise. Google says this integration will let users ask about future events. For example, users can ask about GDP growth in 2025. The tool will show current probabilities and how they change over time. It's unclear if this will link directly to Kalshi and Polymarket's websites. Both platforms operate in legal gray areas worldwide. They face restrictions in the U. S. , Australia, and France. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It claims it can operate in all 50 states, even those that ban sports betting. However, state attorneys general and anti-gambling groups are challenging this in court. Polymarket has faced allegations of market manipulation. Some researchers found that up to 25% of its trading volume may be artificially inflated. There have also been disputes about how these platforms determine if an event has occurred. For example, a bet on whether Ukraine's president would wear a suit by July 2025 turned into a debate about what counts as a suit. The regulatory environment for these platforms is changing. The Trump administration has been supportive. Donald Trump Jr. advises both companies. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission dropped a case against Kalshi. This decision helped Polymarket regain access to the U. S. market. Both companies have received significant investments. Polymarket is now valued at around $8 billion. Kalshi is valued at $5 billion. The Trump family is also entering this market. Truth Social, a platform owned by the Trump family, plans to launch a crypto-based betting platform called Truth Predict.