NATO's 5% Spending Goal: A Test of Trust and Clarity

NATO's new defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035, set at the 2025 summit, is a big deal. But it's not as straightforward as it seems. The plan splits spending into two parts: 3. 5% for traditional defense and 1. 5% for broader security needs. The problem? No one knows exactly what counts as the latter. This lack of clarity could lead to some creative bookkeeping. Governments might re-label existing civilian programs as security-related to meet the target. This is a risk, especially when budgets are tight. The stakes are high. NATO's strength relies on fair effort and transparency. If the 1. 5% becomes a gray area, the 5% target could weaken, not strengthen, the alliance. Different allies have different views on this. Some see it as a way to appease the U. S. , while others, especially those on NATO's eastern border, take it seriously. They know that resilience is not a replacement for military power, but a support system. It's about protecting energy and digital infrastructure, ensuring societal stability under pressure. NATO has been talking about resilience since 2016. The Ukraine war shows how important this is. Military power depends on civilian systems. Investing in resilient energy systems and hardened digital infrastructure is not optional; it's crucial. To make this work, NATO needs clear rules. They need to define what counts as resilience spending, set reporting standards, and ensure projects actually enhance military readiness. Without these guardrails, the 1. 5% target could be misused. The 2026 summit in Turkey is a chance to address these issues. The compromise made in The Hague bought time and consensus. Now, NATO must turn the resilience component into a force multiplier. The goal is to harden collective defense and ensure the alliance remains strong and united.