Texas Governor Race Tightens as Poll Shows Abbott's Lead Grows

A fresh survey from the UT/Texas Politics Project paints a picture of a closer-than-usual Texas governor contest, even as one candidate pulls ahead. Out of 1,200 registered voters questioned, 45% threw their support behind Republican Greg Abbott, the sitting governor. Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, a state representative, grabbed 40% of the vote. The remaining 10% were unsure or undecided.

Two months before the election, the results point to a tougher-than-expected path for Republicans in a state they usually dominate. Past data shows Abbott winning by wide margins: 10.9% in 2022, 12.3% in 2018, and a hefty 20.4% in 2014. So a 5-point edge now feels narrow by comparison.

Independent voters could swing this race one way or the other. Among them, Hinojosa leads Abbott 37% to 17%. But nearly 40% of independents said they still hadn't made up their minds. That group of undecideds is huge, and their choices could change the final outcome.

Geography plays a role too. Abbott has lost some ground in the suburbs since June, where Hinojosa now holds a small four-point advantage. Rural areas are a different story — Abbott dominates there with 61% support, compared to just 23% for Hinojosa. In urban centers, the two candidates are nearly tied.

Texans will get their chance to vote soon. Early voting for the 2026 midterms starts October 19. Election Day follows on November 3.