Trading bets on SpaceX IPO show shifting investor confidence

For weeks, people betting on SpaceX before its official stock debut thought the price might jump way up. But those hopes dropped fast—until a sudden turnaround Friday. A crypto-based bet called SPCX, which tracks where traders think SpaceX will open, climbed from around $153 midweek to nearly $183 by morning. That’s still above the $135 IPO price, but not as wildly high as predictions earlier this year.Unlike real stock trading, this bet doesn’t give anyone real shares or ownership. It’s like placing a bet on a game—you win money if you’re right, but you don’t get to play. Still, it’s one of the few ways to guess how SpaceX might perform when it finally lists. Other markets, like those on blockchain platforms, have also started pricing SpaceX higher than its IPO value. One even suggests a $2. 4 trillion valuation, while another predicts a 70% chance the stock will pass $2 trillion on day one. The sudden jump comes after weeks of cautious trading in these crypto markets. Many thought SpaceX would open above $135, but not at the extreme prices seen before. The recent rise hints that those big early bets are shrinking—but not disappearing. Whether this reflects real excitement or just last-minute adjustments remains unclear.