Weather Woes Push Sugar Prices Higher

Market chatter shows sugar costs rising after worries grow that a strong El Niño could dry out key crop areas in Brazil, India and Thailand. Recent data from the International Sugar Organization point to a possible drop in global supply for 2026/27, which could tighten the market. Meanwhile, reports of lower sugar output in Brazil’s south‑central region and higher ethanol production there suggest mills are shifting focus as gasoline prices climb. India’s temporary export ban, still in place until the end of September, adds extra pressure on global prices by keeping more sugar inside its borders.Another factor is the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has cut about six percent of worldwide sugar trade and limited how much refined sugar can be shipped. Analysts also note that the overall global surplus of sugar is shrinking; estimates for 2026/27 have fallen from over a million tonnes to just under one, signalling tighter supply. On the demand side, U. S. forecasts project a record rise in human sugar consumption for 2025/26, but ending stocks are expected to dip slightly. All these elements—weather risks, supply shifts, trade restrictions and consumption trends—converge to support higher sugar prices in the near term.